Third place qualifiers for the 2026 World Cup: France vs England predictions G Trends

France and England will meet at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens on July 18, 2026, in a match for third place in the 2026 World Cup, with the match scheduled to start at 5:00 pm ET. Both teams reach the semi-finals as losers, giving this match real competitive weight despite neither team securing a place in the final. The third-place match in the 2026 World Cup between France and England has the odds that France are narrow favourites, and the match will decide which European giant will take the bronze medal from North America.

France enters having won four of its five matches in this tournament before losing to Spain in the semi-finals. England, under the leadership of Thomas Tuchel, achieved a perfect record in the qualifiers with eight wins in eight matches without conceding a single goal, then reached the semi-finals before losing to Argentina. The two-time World Cup champions French side carry a bit more goalscoring power on paper, with Kylian Mbappé topping the tournament’s scoring charts, but England’s Harry Kane has brought 79 international goals to Miami and has six in this World Cup alone.

Why is this game important?

The third-place matches in World Cup history carry a medal and a definitive statement of the tournament’s standing. For France, finishing third after reaching the 2022 final would confirm their status as a heavyweight in international football across multiple tournaments. For England, who finished fourth in 2018 and have not won a World Cup since 1966, a bronze medal would be their strongest finish in more than half a century. Both managers face a challenge in managing the team after their semi-final disappointment, and the result holds real historical significance for the semi-final losers of UEFA’s strongest region.

Our choice

France won the third-place match at -112 with BetOnline, buoyed by their superior record in the tournament and a semi-final run that included a 4-1 win over Norway and a 2-0 win over Morocco. At -112, the price reflects close competition but offers fair value for a team that has scored 16 goals during its qualifying run and has the tournament’s top scorer in its first 11 games.

France vs England: Preview, highlights and betting odds

France arrived at this tournament as one of the favourites, and they performed admirably, scoring freely through Mbappe (8 goals in this World Cup), Ousmane Dembélé (5 goals), and Bradley Barkola (2 goals). Didier Deschamps has a squad built around Paris Saint-Germain contributors and complemented by the talents of Bayern Munich, Real Madrid and Arsenal. Their semi-final defeat to Spain was a 2-0 loss, meaning they had been breached twice in a knockout match for the first time in this tournament, but before that they had only conceded once in four matches.

England’s path to the semi-finals included a victory over Mexico 3-2, a victory over the Democratic Republic of the Congo 2-1, and a victory in the quarter-finals over Norway after extra time. Tuchel’s team tied 1-1 with Norway in the quarter-finals before qualifying, and they were able to compete against Argentina before losing 2-1 in the semi-finals. The partnership between Kane and Jude Bellingham has been England’s biggest attacking weapon, with both players scoring six goals each in this tournament. England’s main worry heading into Miami is resetting their mentality for the semi-finals, as third-place matches historically produce inconsistent performances from teams still reeling from impending heartbreak.

The 2026 World Cup bracket produced a bronze final between France and England, which was entirely plausible from the pre-tournament draw. Both countries were expected to reach at least the semi-finals. The key question for the 2026 World Cup knockout stage at this stage is whether France’s depth and tournament momentum can overcome an England side in which Kane and Bellingham are operating at their peak. France’s attacking versatility and superior goal-scoring record in this tournament increases the preview reading towards the French team, although the margin is narrow enough to warrant caution at lower prices.

Modern model and trends

France – last 5 matches (all in 2026 World Cup):

• Spain (home): lost 0-2
• Morocco (home): won 2-0
• Paraguay (away): won 1-0
• Sweden (home): won 3-0
• Norway (away): won 4-1

France’s five-match run at the current World Cup shows a team that has consistently dominated matches and scored a plethora of goals, with their only setback being a 2-0 semi-final defeat to Spain. Before that loss, France had won four consecutive matches in the 2026 World Cup and scored ten goals in this match, conceding only one goal. The quality of opponents they faced, including Morocco and Sweden, proves France’s knockout credentials.

England – last 5 matches (all in 2026 World Cup):

• Argentina (home): lost 1-2
• Norway (away): 1-1 draw (qualified)
• Mexico (away): won 3-2
• Democratic Republic of Congo (home): won 2-1
• Panama (away): won 2-0

England’s last five results have shown a team capable of winning but not always convincingly. The 3-2 win over Mexico and the 2-1 win over DR Congo required late contributions, and the quarter-final match in Norway also required extra time. England have conceded four of their last five matches, an important statistic when facing a prolific French attack like this one. Their ability to score in tight matches is not in doubt, but defensive weaknesses were evident during the knockout rounds.

France vs England history and H2H trends

France and England have met 34 times in all competitions. The most important recent meeting came at the 2022 World Cup in Qatar, where France beat England in a 2-1 knockout match. In immediate context, France won 3-2 in a friendly match in June 2017, England won 2-0 in November 2015, France won 1-0 in March 2008, and France won 2-1 at Euro 2004. The two teams played to a 1-1 draw at Euro 2012 and 1-1 in a friendly match in September 2000. England’s 2-0 win in 2015 represents their most recent victory. Against France, while France won the last World Cup match and holds a positive record in the last five competitive matches. From the third-place play-off at the 2026 World Cup, France vs. England chooses perspective, and France’s historical record in head-to-head competitive encounters gives it a marginal but real advantage.

Injuries, suspensions and roster news

France’s confirmed starting line-up shows a defensive adjustment from earlier in the tournament, with Ibrahima Konate and Maxence Lacroix combining at centre-back, Malu Giusto and Theo Hernandez at full-back, while Mike Maignane continues in goal. In midfield, Adrien Rabiot and Warren Zaire Emery start in front of the backline, while Michael Olise, Ryan Cerkey and Desire De Kylian support Mbappe in a 4-2-3-1 attacking formation. The confirmed line-up suggests that Deschamps has opted to play with new elements and rotate in defense and midfield after the physical demands of the semi-final, while keeping Mbappe as the focal point in attack.

England’s XI includes Dean Henderson in goal behind a back four of Jade Spence, Jarrell Quansah, Ezri Konsa and Mark Guehi, a notable change from recent matches. Declan Rice sits as the deepest midfielder in a 4-1-4-1 formation, with Bukayo Saka, Eberechi Eze, Morgan Rogers and Marcus Rashford operating across the midfield to support lone striker Ivan Toney. Toney’s inclusion up front and Rashford’s presence in a wide midfield role represent changes from the personnel used earlier in the tournament. No confirmed suspensions have been reported for either side, and both managers appear to have used a team rotation between defense and attack in this match after the physical demands of semi-final week.

One area to monitor is the physical condition of the players who have impressed over five or six matches. Mbappe’s eight goals in the tournament indicate a continued involvement in France’s attack, and he and Toni will be closely monitored for their accuracy given the rotation seen elsewhere in each line-up.

Expected formations

The lineup has been confirmed.

France (4-2-3-1): Mignan; Gusteau, Konate, Lacroix, T Hernandez; Rabiot, Zaire Emery; Olise, Shirky, Do; Mbappe.

England (4-1-4-1): Henderson; Spence, Kwansah, Kunsa, Juhi; rice; Saka, Eze, Rogers, Rashford; Tony.

Main match to watch

The duel between Declan Rice and Warren Zaire Emery in central midfield sets up who controls the tempo of the match. Rice, who played as the lone midfielder in England’s 4-1-4-1 formation, was England’s most influential player throughout the tournament, setting the defensive floor and leading transitions from deep. Zaire Emery, alongside Rabiot in France’s double pivot, was tasked with distributing up front and supporting Mbappe’s runs. If Rice can limit Zaire Emery’s time on the ball and force France to build up wide attacks, England have a way to disrupt Mbappe’s supply line. In contrast, France will be looking for a midfield duo to win the battle for control early and allow freedom to a front four that has scored 10 goals in four matches before the semi-finals.

Best bets and expert picks

Main pick: France to win @ -112 (BetOnline)
France scored goals in every match in this tournament and carried Mbappe as top scorer in this match. Their qualifying record of 16 goals in six matches and their dominant form during the knockout rounds makes them the logical choice. England’s defensive record of conceding goals in four of their last five matches at the 2026 World Cup adds further support to France’s victory.

Goals Market: Under 3.5 Goals @ -129 (BetNow)
Third-place matches have historically been characterized by cautious starts and conservative tactical preparations by sides immediately after semi-final losses. Four of the last five World Cup third-place matches have resulted in three goals or fewer. Both France and England played tight, organized football, and the tight 90 minutes fit that pattern. Under 3.5 at -129 with BetNow offers value in that direction.

Scorer Market: Harry Kane is a top scorer at any given time